Preemptive Strike and Forward Defense: Contrasting Doctrines in the Regional Balance of Power

On June 13, 2025, Israel carried out a comprehensive preemptive strike against Iran. Under the codename “Operation Rising Lion,” Israeli forces targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and residences of key leadership figures. The operation was conducted following intensive intelligence preparation and based on the assessment that Iran would soon have the capability to build nuclear weapons. The objective of the preemptive strike was to sustainably weaken Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capacities and thus preempt an imminent threat.

Understanding the context of military strategy is central to interpreting the current events between Israel and Iran. Israel’s actions on June 13, 2025, are clearly embedded in the so-called Begin Doctrine. This strategic guideline was first formulated in 1981, when Israel destroyed Iraq’s Osirak reactor in a preemptive strike. The doctrine stipulates that Israel will prevent the development of weapons of mass destruction in hostile states through preemptive military action before such threats become acute dangers to its own existence.

In the current situation, the Israeli leadership explicitly refers to this doctrine. Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israel would “act militarily against Iran for as many days as necessary” to eliminate the nuclear threat. The aim of the operation is to sustainably weaken Iran’s nuclear program, weapons development, and ballistic missile capabilities. The attacks were specifically directed at nuclear facilities such as Natanz, the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards, and key figures in science and the military.

Israeli military strategy is aimed at securing its own freedom of action and achieving strategic surprise through preemption—that is, proactively countering an impending threat. The operation was conducted without prior approval from the United States, underscoring Israel’s determination to act alone if necessary. The strategic objectives include not only preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons but also weakening Iranian command and control structures and its ability to exert regional influence through proxies.

The attacks were complemented by coordinated sabotage actions against Iranian air defense and missile systems. More than 200 Israeli fighter jets were deployed in five waves, using over 330 precision munitions against around 100 targets. The targets included the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Isfahan Province, nuclear sites in Khondab and Khorramabad, as well as numerous locations in Tehran, including residential areas and military command posts.

According to Israeli forces and Iranian media, several high-ranking Iranian military officials were killed in the attacks, including Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami and the Chief of Staff of the Iranian armed forces Mohammad Bagheri. Iranian nuclear scientists such as Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi were also killed. The Israeli airstrikes were explicitly aimed at nuclear infrastructure, the ballistic missile program, and the command level of the Iranian armed forces. The attacks were accompanied by explosions in Tehran and other cities.

In terms of air defense, Israel possesses a multi-layered system that counters various threats at different ranges and altitudes. Iron Dome is designed to intercept short-range rockets and artillery shells within a range of 4 to 70 kilometers. Each battery consists of three to four launchers with 20 Tamir interceptor missiles each, an EL/M-2084 radar for target acquisition, and a command unit for fire control. The system can engage multiple threats simultaneously and protects an area of up to 150 square kilometers per battery. Iron Dome operates independently of weather and time of day. Its architecture is open, allowing integration into higher-level command systems. Only rockets aimed at populated areas are intercepted.

David’s Sling bridges the gap between Iron Dome and Arrow. It is designed to intercept medium-range missiles, tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones with ranges up to 300 kilometers. The system uses mobile launchers with 6 to 12 “Stunner” interceptor missiles per unit, launched vertically. Target acquisition is provided by the EL/M-2084 multifunction radar. David’s Sling uses a “hit-to-kill” mechanism, directly destroying the target, and is capable of intercepting advanced threats such as Iskander or DF-15 missiles. Each interceptor costs about one million US dollars. The system was introduced in 2017 and can be flexibly deployed to protect strategically important areas.

Arrow-3 forms the uppermost layer of Israel’s air defense and is designed for exo-atmospheric interception of medium- and long-range missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles. Arrow-3 can intercept targets up to 2,400 kilometers away and at altitudes up to 100 kilometers. The system uses two-stage solid-fuel rockets, an early warning and fire control radar, and a command post. Arrow-3 employs hit-to-kill technology and can track and engage multiple targets simultaneously. Developed jointly by Israel Aerospace Industries and the US Missile Defense Agency, Arrow-3 has been operational since 2017. These systems are networked and supplemented by additional components such as the US THAAD system, enabling layered, flexible, and redundant defense against missiles, cruise missiles, and drones of different ranges and altitudes.

On the Iranian side, the so-called Forward Defense Doctrine is central. This strategy is based on deterring threats by building up missile and drone arsenals and supporting proxy groups such as Hezbollah and other militias to keep potential adversaries at a distance from Iran’s borders. Following the recent Israeli attacks, Iran announced that it would respond directly and with all available means to any further attacks. The leadership in Tehran sees its red line as crossed and is seeking to overload Israeli defenses and establish a new deterrence threshold through asymmetric measures—especially drone and missile attacks.

Iran responded by launching more than 100 drones, including models such as the Shahed-136 and Shahed-238, designed for swarm attacks and with ranges of up to 2,500 kilometers. The drones are intended to tie up Israeli air defense systems and overload their capacity. The first drones were sighted over Iraq. According to Israeli forces and international media, the first Iranian drones are expected to reach Israeli airspace within one to two hours, unless intercepted earlier. The flight time for such drones from Iran to Israel is usually up to seven hours; given the current sightings over Iraq, their arrival over Israel is imminent.