Existential Threat: How Iran’s Nuclear Program Challenges Israel’s Security

Iran’s nuclear program has been a focal point of international politics for decades, and in the summer of 2025, it is under more scrutiny than ever before. What began as a civilian energy project has evolved into one of the most dangerous geopolitical flashpoints of our time. At the heart of the concern lies the question of how far Iran has actually advanced in developing its nuclear capabilities—and what threats this poses, especially for Israel.

The origins of Iran’s nuclear program date back to the 1950s, when the United States and European countries supported the development of a civilian nuclear industry in Iran. After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the program initially came to a halt, but by the 1980s, Tehran resumed its efforts. Since the discovery of secret facilities in 2002 at the latest, Iran has been suspected of pursuing military ambitions alongside civilian use.

Serious nuclear negotiations began in 2003 with the so-called EU-3 (Germany, France, Great Britain). From 2006, the format was expanded to include the US, Russia, and China, forming the P5+1. The 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) was intended to place Iran’s program under strict international control and limit uranium enrichment. However, after the US withdrew from the agreement in 2018, Tehran increasingly disregarded the restrictions and significantly curtailed cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA now laments a growing knowledge gap regarding the actual progress of the program.

According to the IAEA, Iran currently possesses more than 7,400 kilograms of enriched uranium—almost 25 times the amount permitted under the JCPOA. Particularly alarming: around 408 kilograms are enriched to 60 percent, enabling a rapid leap to weapons-grade material (90 percent). Experts estimate that Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb within days. The so-called “breakout time” has thus been reduced to a minimum.

Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is decentralized and deeply buried underground. The main facilities are located in Natanz and Fordow, equipped with advanced sixth-generation centrifuges. The IAEA has also found traces of uranium at previously unknown sites, for which Tehran has provided no credible explanations.

For Israel, Iran’s nuclear program represents an existential threat. The government in Jerusalem faces the possibility that Iran could produce several nuclear bombs in a short period of time. A nuclear-armed Iran would fundamentally alter the regional balance of power and could serve as a protective shield for aggressive actions by its allies—such as Hezbollah and Hamas.

In addition, there have been repeated threats from Tehran to destroy Israel in the event of conflict. The Iranian leadership has repeatedly announced that, in the event of an attack, it would target Israeli nuclear facilities and major cities. The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities in mid-June 2025 underscore how seriously the situation is taken. Israel subsequently declared a state of emergency and called on the population to stay near shelters.

A nuclear-armed Iran could also trigger a regional arms race. Countries like Saudi Arabia have already signaled that they would seek nuclear weapons should Iran break through. The risk of further destabilization in the Middle East is growing—as is the concern about an open military conflict.

Iran’s nuclear program has reached a new level of escalation in 2025. International oversight is severely restricted, and diplomatic channels are blocked. Israel faces an existential threat, and the entire region is entering a phase of great uncertainty.