KEY ASSESSMENT

Saudi Arabia has partially resumed operations at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition reported further missile and drone attacks on 25 October, including numerous interceptions. Falling debris injured two people. Early on 26 October, the Houthis claimed further strikes against the airport and pumping stations along the East-West Pipeline. Saudi authorities had not confirmed the latest claims by the editorial cut-off. Limited flight operations remain exposed to a continuing regional missile threat.

Senior representatives of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are due to hold security talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on 26 October. All three countries belong to the Mecca Defence Pact. The planned consultations establish a direct diplomatic channel while military operations continue. No agreement to halt attacks had been announced.

In Serbia, a student-led electoral list won the parliamentary election, according to preliminary results. Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat for his political bloc. The student-led list is projected to secure between 135 and 140 of the 250 parliamentary seats. Vučić had already resigned as president in September. His political bloc has consequently lost its previous parliamentary dominance. Government formation, the transfer of institutional authority and the country's future foreign policy are now the principal issues.

Ukraine is once again receiving full US early warnings of impending Russian ballistic missile attacks, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Starshield connectivity for mobile platforms travelling at speeds of up to 420 km/h has also been restored. Ukrainian forces say two time-critical support capabilities are therefore available again for air defence and military communications.

MIDDLE EAST / SAUDI ARABIA / YEMEN

Riyadh Airport Reopens Two Terminals Amid Continuing Missile Threat

King Khalid International Airport resumed limited operations on 25 October. Terminal 1 is handling domestic services, while Terminal 2 is designated for international flights operated by Saudi airlines. Flight-tracking data initially showed relatively little traffic.

The airport had been closed following the Houthi attack of 10 October, which killed 13 people according to Saudi authorities.

On Sunday, the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting two drones and a ballistic missile heading towards Riyadh, along with a cruise missile directed at Khamis Mushait. It subsequently said another ten ballistic missiles had been intercepted over southern Saudi Arabia.

Debris from intercepted missiles injured two people in Khamis Mushait and Ahad Rafidah. Saudi civil defence authorities confirmed damage to three buildings and seven vehicles.

Early on Monday, the Houthis claimed further attacks against Riyadh airport and pumping stations along the East-West Pipeline. The coalition had earlier reported destroying two missile launchers in Sanaa. According to the Saudi account, one had launched a projectile towards Riyadh.

Saudi authorities had not confirmed the Houthis' latest claims of successful strikes by 05:30 CET. No fresh disruption or reduction in throughput had been confirmed at the pumping stations identified by the group

.

The roughly 1,200-kilometre East-West Pipeline connects Saudi Arabia's eastern oilfields with Yanbu on the Red Sea. It allows crude oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia had temporarily shut the pipeline following a drone attack in September.

The current threat affects two distinct areas of operation. In aviation, fresh missile alerts can prompt immediate delays or suspensions. For crude oil exports, physical damage and measurable losses of pipeline capacity would have to be established. Verified information from operators will determine whether shipment volumes or transport routes need to change.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Plan Security Talks in Tehran

Representatives of the Mecca Defence Pact are expected to meet Iranian officials in Tehran on 26 October to discuss regional security.

Citing two people familiar with the arrangements, Reuters named Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalın among the expected participants.

Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, confirmed the planned consultations to Iranian state television.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed in early October to accelerate military assistance to the kingdom. Pakistan has also maintained direct contacts with Tehran. Munir had visited the Iranian capital the previous week.

The meeting is scheduled against a backdrop of continuing Houthi attacks. Alongside the three countries' military cooperation, there is therefore a diplomatic channel to Iran. Any change in the security situation would depend on concrete commitments to restrain attacks, agreed monitoring arrangements or binding undertakings.

Hebron: Israeli Military Operation Accompanied by Extensive Access Restrictions

Israeli forces continued their operation in Hebron on 25 October. It followed an attack on 23 October in which two Israeli soldiers were killed and three others wounded.

The Israeli military said troops had searched more than 400 locations and arrested 40 people suspected of links to Hamas or Islamic Jihad. No armed organisation has claimed responsibility for the initial attack.

Hebron's municipal authorities reported that more than 2,600 residents had been displaced from nearly 500 homes. Israeli forces closed several approaches to the city and imposed substantial restrictions on movement.

Palestinian workers were largely barred from entering Israeli settlements on Sunday and Monday. Crossings into Israel were expected to remain closed until after the election on 27 October.

The closures are disrupting journeys to work, commercial deliveries and access to medical services. Further armed attacks or an expansion of military exclusion zones would place additional pressure on essential services.

EUROPE / SERBIA

Student-Led List Wins Parliamentary Election as Vučić Concedes Defeat

Aleksandar Vučić acknowledged on 25 October that his political bloc had lost Serbia's early parliamentary election. His preliminary projection gave the student-led list between 135 and 140 of the 250 seats. He estimated that the Serbian Progressive Party and its allies would secure around 105.

Election observers confirmed a substantial lead for the student-led list. Initial estimates put turnout at nearly 70 per cent. The official final result remained outstanding.

The student movement emerged following the collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad in November 2024, which killed 16 people. Protests over corruption and failures of government accountability subsequently developed into a nationwide political movement.

Vučić had resigned as president on 27 September to pursue a return to the premiership. He handed over presidential duties to parliamentary speaker Ana Brnabić the following day.

The projected distribution of seats would allow the student-led list to form a government without coalition partners. Its candidates come from different social and political backgrounds. No prospective prime minister has yet been named.

The European Union has offered support on the rule of law, media freedom and anti-corruption measures. The new parliamentary majority will also have to determine Serbia's relations with Brussels, Moscow, Beijing and Pristina.

The immediate steps are confirmation of the election result, the formation of parliament and the appointment of a government. Control of the interior and defence ministries, together with appointments to the security services, will be central to the transfer of institutional authority.

Bulgaria: Yotova and Gyurov Advance to Presidential Run-off

Bulgaria's presidential election on 25 October produced no outright winner. Incumbent Iliana Yotova and Andrey Gyurov will contest a second round on 1 November.

Alpha Research's parallel vote count put Yotova on 34.6 per cent and Gyurov on 32.7 per cent. Other polling organisations reported different figures. Preliminary estimates placed turnout at approximately 22 per cent.

Yotova favours closer political engagement with Russia. Gyurov supports stronger cooperation with the EU and continued assistance to Ukraine.

The Bulgarian presidency carries supreme command of the armed forces, constitutional veto powers and responsibilities relating to international agreements and senior state appointments.

The narrow first-round margin places greater weight on voter mobilisation ahead of 1 November. Bulgaria's subsequent decisions on defence cooperation, sanctions and support for Ukraine will provide a more reliable indication of its security policy direction.

UKRAINE / RUSSIA / UNITED STATES

Zelenskyy Confirms Restoration of US Ballistic Missile Early Warnings

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Ukrainian television on 25 October that the United States had fully resumed warnings of impending Russian ballistic missile attacks.

The information helps Ukrainian air defences identify incoming threats and alert areas at risk.

Zelenskyy also said Starshield had been operating again since Saturday morning on mobile platforms travelling at speeds of up to 420 km/h. Earlier technical restrictions had limited certain mobile applications.

He attributed the restoration of both services to talks with US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo. Neither the US government nor the service provider had independently confirmed the full technical capabilities in a public statement.

The two services perform separate military functions. Early-warning intelligence gives air defences more time to respond. Starshield provides satellite communications for mobile military applications.

Any renewed restrictions on early-warning information would affect the time available to issue alerts. Changes to Starshield's operating conditions would directly affect the deployment of communications systems dependent on the service.

Ukraine Sets Conditions for Limiting Strikes on Russian Refineries

Washington is pressing Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries because of their effects on international energy prices, according to Reuters.

Zelenskyy said Kyiv could consider such a restriction in return for specific concessions. He identified three possibilities: an end to Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, permission to use Starshield capabilities over Russia to identify ballistic missile launch sites, or the delivery of additional Patriot air defence systems.

These demands constitute Ukraine's negotiating position. No agreement on reciprocal restrictions had been reached by the editorial cut-off.

Technical talks involving representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the United States are planned for November. Zelenskyy ruled out enforced Ukrainian neutrality and negotiations over limits on the size of Ukraine's armed forces.

Territorial questions, he said, should be addressed at the level of heads of state and government.

Further progress will depend on written commitments, verifiable reciprocal measures and their implementation in military operations.

AFRICA / ALGERIA / NIGER

Algerian Parliament Authorises Troop Deployment to Madama

Algeria's parliament approved the deployment of National People's Army units to Niger on 25 October. Both chambers voted unanimously in favour.

The proposed location is Madama in northern Niger, close to the Libyan border. The military base there was previously used during France's Operation Barkhane.

A Nigerien security official said no Algerian troops had yet been officially deployed. Niger's presidential chief of staff, General Bacharou Ibro Amadou, had previously visited the base and held talks with local military commanders.

An actual deployment would constitute Algeria's first overseas military operation since its forces participated in the 1973 war.

Madama lies in a border region crossed by transnational routes and affected by armed-group activity. An Algerian military presence would expand the forces available to both countries for operations in northern Niger.

The operational mandate has not been published. Troop numbers, command arrangements and rules of engagement will determine whether the mission is confined to training and border security or includes wider military operations.

Algeria also has energy interests in Niger, including the planned Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline. The parliamentary authorisation did not identify a specific mission to protect those projects.

AMERICAS / BRAZIL

Lula Wins Presidential Election as Bolsonaro Announces Legal Challenge

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court confirmed the re-election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 25 October.

Lula received 64,256,232 votes, or 51.79 per cent. Flávio Bolsonaro secured 59,826,041 votes, equivalent to 48.21 per cent. Lula's majority was 4,430,191 votes.

The result gives Lula a fourth, non-consecutive presidential term.

Bolsonaro refused to recognise the result and announced plans to seek its annulment. He challenged a decision by Justice Cristiano Zanin to extend voting by two hours under certain conditions because severe weather had disrupted transport and access to polling stations.

The electoral court declared Lula the winner. No formal ruling had been issued on Bolsonaro's proposed challenge.

The immediate implications for political stability depend on the legal proceedings and the response of state institutions. A court challenge would initially concern the legal status of the dispute. Large-scale protests, violence or refusal by state bodies to implement the certified result would have direct security implications.

Lula will continue to face substantial opposition in Congress. His ability to implement economic and fiscal policies will depend heavily on parliamentary negotiations.

IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION-MAKERS

Saudi Arabia / Aviation and Energy: Airlines require current airport, airspace and insurance clearance before each flight rotation. Fresh missile alerts or official closures require a new operational decision. Crude oil buyers and pipeline operators should revise delivery arrangements when physical damage or measurable throughput losses are confirmed.

Serbia / Change of Government: International partners and businesses should use the certified election result as the basis for planning. Delays in forming a government or disputes over institutional authority require a reassessment of political and contractual exposure.

Ukraine / Military Assistance: Relevant military authorities must monitor early-warning availability and Starshield's technical operating limits. Renewed restrictions require alternative alerting and communications procedures.

Algeria / Niger: A confirmed deployment to Madama requires a review of movement authorisations and security arrangements for exposed personnel. A published combat mandate would require additional protection for military and energy-related facilities.

Brazil / Institutional Stability: Security managers should monitor the submission and consideration of legal challenges. Site-specific restrictions may be necessary if violent protests or serious disruption to public infrastructure are confirmed.

24-/72-HOUR INDICATORS

Saudi Arabia / Iran: 

Whether the Tehran talks take place and produce agreements; further Houthi attacks; Saudi interception reports; NOTAM and flight movements at Riyadh; confirmed damage or throughput changes along the East-West Pipeline.

Serbia: Certified seat allocation; appointment of a prime minister-designate; decisions on the leadership of the interior and defence ministries; senior security appointments; electoral complaints and protests.

Ukraine:

 Continuity of US early warnings; measured Starshield operating limits; further strikes on energy infrastructure; US decisions on Patriot systems; scheduling of the planned trilateral talks.

Algeria / Niger: 

Start of troop movements; force strength; mission mandate; command structure; reactions from regional security actors.

Brazil: Formal electoral challenge; court decisions; protest mobilisation; statements from state security institutions.

Bulgaria / Israel: Certified Bulgarian election results; political endorsements ahead of the run-off; the extent of restrictions around Hebron; further armed incidents.

RISK / DECISION REGISTER

P1 — SAUDI ARABIA / AVIATION AND ENERGY

Threat: Missile and drone attacks against exposed infrastructure.

Decision threshold: Confirmed strike, airport closure or verified loss of energy transport capacity.

Action: Revise flight clearances, personnel protection and delivery schedules according to verified conditions.

Risk level: High.

P2 — UKRAINE / US MILITARY SUPPORT

Threat: Ukrainian air defence and military communications depend on US-controlled support capabilities.

Decision threshold: Loss of early-warning information, technical restrictions or a regional Starshield outage.

Action: Activate alternative alerting and communications procedures; adjust affected operational profiles.

Risk level: High for directly dependent systems.

P3 — SERBIA / POLITICAL TRANSITION

Threat: Disputes over government formation and institutional authority.

Decision threshold: Obstruction of the transfer of power, interference with certification of the result or significant violence.

Action: Reassess political exposure and business-continuity arrangements.

Risk level: Elevated during government formation.

P4 — ALGERIA / NIGER

Threat: Military deployment to a border region affected by armed groups.

Decision threshold: Official deployment, combat mandate or armed attack against stationed forces.

Action: Revise movement restrictions, site protection and evacuation plans.

Risk level: Elevated; high if forces become directly engaged in combat.

P5 — BRAZIL / ELECTION SECURITY

Threat: Political mobilisation surrounding the announced electoral challenge.

Decision threshold: Violent mass protests or institutional refusal to recognise the certified result.

Action: Review security and operational arrangements at affected sites.

Risk level: Elevated if unrest materialises.

GLOSSARY

East-West Pipeline

 — Saudi crude oil pipeline linking the eastern oil-producing regions to Yanbu on the Red Sea. It provides an export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Madama — Military facility in northern Niger, close to the Libyan border.

Mecca Defence Pact — Defence agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan.

NOTAM — Time-critical aeronautical notice concerning operational changes or hazards.

Starshield — SpaceX satellite service designed for government and military applications.

Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline — Proposed pipeline connecting Nigeria to Algeria through Niger, with onward access to the European gas market.

REFERENCES

Reuters
Officials from Mecca pact countries to meet Iranian officials on Monday, two sources say
26 October 2026

Reuters
Houthis say they attacked Saudi oil pumping stations, Riyadh airport as fighting intensifies
26 October 2026

Reuters
Saudis say Riyadh airport partly reopens despite renewed Houthi threats
25 October 2026

Saudi Press Agency
Civil Defense: Two Injured, Three Buildings and Seven Vehicles Damaged as Debris from Intercepted Houthi Missiles Falls in Khamis Mushait, Ahad Rafidah
25 October 2026

Reuters
Saudi Arabia intercepts drones and missiles as fighting with Yemen's Houthis continues
25 October 2026

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Vucic Concedes Electoral Defeat, Setting Stage For New Era Of Serbian Politics, Relations With West
26 October 2026

Government of the Republic of Serbia
President of Republic of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić resigns
27 September 2026

Government of the Republic of Serbia
Vučić hands over duty of President of Republic to National Assembly Speaker
28 September 2026

Reuters
Zelenskiy says US fully resumes warnings on ballistic strikes
25 October 2026

Reuters
Algeria to send troops to Niger in first foreign deployment since 1973
25 October 2026

Associated Press
Israel presses ahead with West Bank operation as election approaches
25 October 2026

Bulgarian News Agency
Iotova and Gurov to Face Off in Presidential Runoff on 

November 1
25 October 2026

Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Presidente do TSE anuncia reeleição de Lula e faz balanço do 2º turno das Eleições 2026
26 October 2026

Agência Brasil
Flávio não reconhece vitória de Lula e tentará anulação do pleito
25 October 2026