Situation Report: Operational Concentration in the Middle East
Military and intelligence assessment of the US-Iran war, the Red Sea and Ukraine
Reporting period: 220600B JUL 26 to 230600B JUL 26. Editorial cut-off: 230600B JUL 26.
23. Juli 2026
Richard Krauß
Key Findings
The operational delta from the previous day is the continuation of US air operations against Iran and the simultaneous expansion of the regional threat into the Red Sea. According to US Central Command, the operation ended at 230430B JUL 26. USCENTCOM subsequently published its statement on 23 July 2026. The command identified maritime capabilities, missile and UAS storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air-defence assets as targets. No independent BDA was available at the editorial cut-off.
Jordan was again directly affected by Iranian missile operations. The Jordan Armed Forces reported six missiles targeting Jordanian territory, four of which were intercepted while two fell in uninhabited areas. The command additionally reported the interception of four Iranian UAS. EASA responded with CZIB-2026-08 for the entire Amman FIR and recommended that affected operators avoid the airspace at all altitudes.
In the Red Sea, the Saudi tanker Encelia was struck by an unknown projectile approximately 70 NM southwest of Al Shuqaiq. UKMTO WARNING 095-26 and the subsequent statement by the Saudi Transport General Authority confirm the strike, the resulting fire and the safety of the crew. The Houthis additionally claimed an attack on the tanker Layla; this second attack claim remained limited to the statement of a conflict party.
In Europe, the Bulgarian parliament authorised the possible deployment of up to eight KC-135 aircraft and 250 US military personnel at Bezmer from 24 July. The decision establishes the legal basis for the deployment. An available AAR capability requires the actual arrival of the aircraft, Force Protection and operational tasking. The Middle East remains the dominant short-term risk complex; the Ukrainian reorganisation of operational command constitutes the principal European delta.
Situation Assessment I
The twelfth consecutive night of US strikes against Iran ended at 230430B JUL 26, according to CENTCOM. The command subsequently published its statement on 23 July 2026 and identified Iranian maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites and air-defence assets as targets. Reuters published its report at 230527B JUL 26. The US target set therefore continues to follow a Counterforce approach against Iranian A2/AD, UAS and maritime effectors.
According to the command, US forces had struck dozens of Iranian military sites during the month, redirected nine commercial vessels and disabled another vessel. CENTCOM assigned these measures to the operation it described as a naval blockade. These statements represent the US command’s assessment of the situation. Independent data on the degree of target destruction, Iran’s remaining capabilities and the regeneration of its air defences were unavailable as of 230600B JUL 26.
US President Donald Trump announced retaliatory attacks against Iranian bridges and power plants in response to further attacks on commercial shipping. The statement expands the publicly declared target set from military Counterforce targets to strategic infrastructure. The operational transition would become identifiable through corresponding target allocation, Air Tasking or confirmed weapons effects.
The continued US air operation is established with high confidence through the CENTCOM primary publication. Target damage and the degradation of Iranian capabilities carry medium confidence because the available BDA originates primarily from the attacking command. The assessment of an expanded infrastructure campaign remains at medium confidence; it is based on the presidential targeting threat, while corresponding operational execution had not occurred by the editorial cut-off.
The Jordan Armed Forces stated through Petra at 221044B JUL 26 that they had detected six missiles originating from Iran and targeting the Kingdom. Four were reportedly intercepted, while two fell in remote, uninhabited areas. The command reported no casualties or material damage. According to the Jordanian statement, Royal Engineering Corps teams secured impact sites and debris fields.
At 221141B JUL 26, a further report stated that four Iranian UAS had been intercepted that morning by Royal Jordanian Air Force aircraft. The military source again reported no casualties or damage. Both sets of figures remain explicitly attributed to the Jordan Armed Forces. High confidence applies to the conduct of Jordanian interception operations; the system types, flight profiles and engagement methods are assessed with medium confidence because technical data and independent sensor records are unavailable.
EASA published CZIB-2026-08 for the Amman FIR OJAC on 22 July. The recommendation covers all altitudes and remains valid until 31 August unless revised earlier. EASA based the classification on repeated Iranian missile and UAS attacks, active IAMD, and the risks created by misidentification and falling debris.
The CZIB functions as a safety directive for the operators it covers. Sovereign airspace management remains with Jordan. At the time of publication, EASA stated that Jordanian authorities had issued no conflict-related route closures or airspace restrictions. National NOTAMs therefore remain the principal indicator of a state-directed clearance of civilian airspace, military Deconfliction or measures to reduce the risk of Fratricide.
The EASA measure and its geographical scope are established with high confidence. Its specific effect on individual flight programmes is assessed with medium confidence. By the editorial cut-off, neither affected operators nor insurers had published a substantiated statement concerning route cancellations or changes to war-risk coverage.
Situation Assessment II
UKMTO WARNING 095-26 reported on 22 July that a tanker had been struck by an unknown projectile approximately 70 NM southwest of Al Shuqaiq. The initial report stated that a fire had developed aboard the vessel and the crew was conducting firefighting operations. The warning listed no casualties or environmental impact.
The Saudi Transport General Authority subsequently confirmed through the Saudi Press Agency that the Saudi-owned tanker Encelia had been struck while transiting the Red Sea. The impact reportedly caused a fire at the bow. The responsible authorities secured the vessel and crew and initiated measures to protect the marine environment. All crew members were reported safe.
The Houthis stated that they had attacked Encelia and Layla with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and UAS. The Encelia incident is supported by UKMTO and the Saudi authority’s statement. No corresponding operator, flag-state or government report concerning Layla was available at the editorial cut-off. The claimed weapons mix remains a statement by a conflict party.
The confirmed strike extends the active maritime threat to an SLOC that has gained importance for Saudi exports amid restricted use of the Strait of Hormuz. Continued Houthi targeting of Saudi tankers would place simultaneous pressure on Bab al-Mandab and the central Red Sea. The operational effect will depend on follow-on strikes, shipping-protection measures and tanker-fleet behaviour.
The strike, fire and safety of the crew are established with high confidence through UKMTO WARNING 095-26 and the Transport General Authority. Houthi responsibility carries medium confidence because the group claimed the attack and the confirmed incident corresponds with the claim in time and location. The assessment of a sustained campaign against Saudi energy SLOCs remains at medium confidence and requires further confirmed attacks.
Situation Assessment III
At 221239B JUL 26, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence published the results of a meeting between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the military leadership. Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi is assuming the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Major General Ihor Skybiuk is to become Chief of the General Staff; according to the primary publication, the required appointment decrees were being prepared.
The identified priorities included the transition to a corps system, mobilisation and training. Organisational decisions concerning the establishment of cyber forces were also included. The Ministry of Defence additionally identified measures to accelerate the FREYJA missile-defence programme and negotiations with the United States concerning licences for the production of Patriot systems.
At 221443B JUL 26, Reuters quoted Drapatyi as stating that he had been tasked with intensifying counteroffensive action and planning operations behind enemy lines. The agency was reporting the statement of the new Commander-in-Chief. AP also reported the leadership reorganisation but relied on the same Ukrainian personnel decisions and therefore does not constitute independent confirmation of operational implementation.
The primary publication of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence supports high confidence in the political decision and the stated organisational priorities. Implementation of the personnel decisions will reach high confidence once the required decrees are published. Counteroffensive action and operations in the Russian rear remain assessed with medium confidence as planning directives; their implementation requires available forces, ammunition and resilient C2 structures.
Operationally, the reorganisation is intended to establish a closer connection between corps-level command, mobilisation management and long-range effects. Its immediate combat value depends on Force Availability and the ability to generate additional offensive forces while sustaining current defensive operations. Within the reporting period, approved sources provided no substantiated evidence that a major operation had already begun.
Germany and NATO’s Eastern Flank
No substantive new German military decision with immediate effect within the next 72 hours was identified during the reporting period. The relevant delta on NATO’s southeastern flank occurred in Bulgaria.
On 22 July, the Bulgarian parliament authorised the temporary presence of up to eight KC-135 aircraft, their crews and up to 250 US military personnel at Bezmer Air Base. The authorised period begins on 24 July and ends on 1 October. The package includes personal weapons, ammunition and the required airfield equipment.
The government proposal assigns the deployment to the support of US operations in the Middle East. Defence Minister Dimitar Stoyanov defined the intended mission as aerial refuelling and stated that the deployment would remain within the mandate authorised by parliament. The vote was 136 in favour and 13 against, with two abstentions.
The decision authorises the movement and stationing of the force. A confirmed AAR capability at Bezmer will exist once operational KC-135 aircraft arrive with their crews, maintenance elements and mission-planning support. The scale of operations, Air Tasking and Force Protection arrangements had not been published by the editorial cut-off.
Confidence in the legal basis and authorised scope is high, based on the primary publications of the Bulgarian parliament. The state-operated Bulgarian News Agency (BTA) documents the vote and debate but does not constitute independent confirmation of the parliamentary decision. The assessment of a future AAR contribution carries medium confidence until the aircraft, readiness status and tasking can be officially established.
Strategic Armament and US Defence Planning
At 222237B JUL 26, the US House of Representatives passed H.R. 8800, its version of the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2027, by 216 votes to 212. The body of the Reuters report gives an authorised value of USD 1.15 trillion. The voting pattern comprised 209 Republican votes, six Democratic votes and one independent vote in favour.
The NDAA establishes defence-policy authorisations, programme frameworks and spending ceilings. Budget Authority is created through subsequent Appropriations. The House version therefore provides a reliable early indicator of priorities but does not independently release funds for the authorised programmes.
The legislation remains a House-passed version. Senate Democrats blocked the Senate version. Senate passage, reconciliation of the two chamber versions and presidential action remain outstanding. The unrelated attachment of the SAVE America Act to the House version compounds the Cloture and majority problem in the Senate.
The passage and voting figures are established with high confidence through the Office of the Clerk. Confidence in the final programme structure is medium because Senate action and potential conference changes remain outstanding. The operational effect within 72 hours is limited; strategically, the legislation demonstrates the political prioritisation of the Iran war and military-technical cooperation with Israel.
The Naval Postgraduate School formally commissioned an NVIDIA DGX GB300 system at 222300B JUL 26. The configuration comprises 72 Blackwell Ultra GPUs and 36 Grace CPUs. The system was integrated into the existing NPS computing environment and supports defence-related research under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement established in 2024.
The additional computing capacity improves research conditions for modelling, simulation and military AI. Operational capability transfer requires validated applications, secured data access and integration into military C2 environments. The technical commissioning is established with high confidence; statements concerning specific operational programmes remain limited to publicly declared research purposes.
Indo-Pacific
Reuters reported, citing the Maritime Safety Administration in Zhangzhou, that Navigational Warning Min Hang Jing 126/26 established two firing periods near Dongshan. The first period began at 230000B JUL 26 and ended at 231200B JUL 26. A second area was designated for 24 July during the same daily time window. Uninvolved shipping was instructed to avoid the published zones.
At 230529B JUL 26, Reuters reported the beginning of two days of live-fire drills. The maritime restriction entered into force at the start of the period specified in the authority’s notice; this is the basis for the start of the exercise described in the Reuters headline. No additional approved Taiwanese or international primary source had documented an actual weapons release by the editorial cut-off.
The geographically limited areas near the Chinese coast initially support an assessment of local firing training or a limited political-military signal. An expansion of the exercise areas, additional air or naval forces, and missile launches would alter the assessment.
The coordinates and time windows derive from the authority’s statement reproduced by Reuters; without a directly accessible official document, the underlying facts carry medium confidence. The conduct of the announced firing activity also carries medium confidence. Confidence in the assessment of preparations for a broader operation remains low because the published geometry indicates a limited, coastal activity.
New Zealand and Papua New Guinea signed a Statement of Intent on Defence Cooperation for 2026–2029 on 22 July. According to the New Zealand government statement, it covers additional defence dialogue, training and joint exercises. Personnel exchanges are also included. New Zealand Defence Minister Chris Penk and Papua New Guinea Defence Minister Elias Kapavore signed the document.
The statement establishes a multiyear cooperation framework without a mutual-defence obligation. Its operational significance will depend on exercise planning, access arrangements and specific force commitments. The agreement is established with high confidence through the New Zealand primary source; broader claims concerning basing or logistics rights are not currently supported.
Negative Reporting
Within the reporting period, approved official sources and established news agencies carried no qualifying new report of a large-scale power outage, a confirmed cyberattack with strategic KRITIS effects, or an exceptional mass-casualty event outside the conflict situations covered above.
No outbreak or unusual disease cluster with a substantiated event time after 220600B JUL 26 was identified. The ECDC Ebola assessment for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, updated on 22 July, uses case totals reported on 21 July and data through 20 July. The update date falls within the reporting period, while the underlying epidemiological event times precede it.
No new proliferation, sanctions or export-control decision with an expected immediate military effect within the next 72 hours was identified. Apart from the EASA CZIBs and the Chinese navigational warning covered above, the aviation sources reviewed contained no substantive new airspace measure with a confirmed connection to a crisis.
Intelligence Assessment
The determining development is the geographical linkage of three operational areas: Iran, Jordanian airspace and the Red Sea. CENTCOM continues to concentrate on military Counterforce effects. The presidential threat against bridges and power plants simultaneously creates a political option for attacks on strategic infrastructure. Iran has an interest in increasing regional costs without prematurely exposing its remaining strategic systems. Jordan is directing its efforts towards territorial IAMD and the reduction of civilian secondary effects.
Further CENTCOM publications on target categories and mission duration should be assessed within the next 24 hours. The responsible reporting authority is USCENTCOM. Jordanian missile or UAS interceptions should be tracked through the Jordan Armed Forces and Petra. New NOTAMs for OJAC and adjacent FIRs would provide verifiable indicators of altered Deconfliction or a state-directed clearance of civilian air routes.
In the Red Sea, updates to UKMTO WARNING 095-26, statements from the Transport General Authority and information from the responsible operator will be decisive within the next 24 hours. A further confirmed strike against a Saudi tanker would shift the assessment from a single incident to the opening phase of an attack campaign. Reports from the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) or UKMTO concerning multiple correlated incidents would provide the relevant reporting channel.
For Bulgaria, the arrival of identifiable KC-135 aircraft, the activation of Force Protection and official indications of flight operations should be assessed from 24 July. The responsible reporting authorities are the Bulgarian Ministry of Defence, United States European Command (EUCOM) and the relevant aviation authorities. Within 72 hours, recurring departures, tanker orbits or a declared assignment to CENTCOM tasking would demonstrate actual Force Availability.
In Ukraine, presidential appointment decrees and a formal General Staff directive concerning the command transition are relevant within the next 24 hours. Within 72 hours, altered long-range strike cycles, additional operational areas or publicly confirmed corps assignments would constitute verifiable indicators. The responsible reporting authorities are the Ukrainian Presidential Office, the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff.
For the Taiwan Strait, the cancellation of Min Hang Jing 126/26, an extension of its restriction periods or the publication of additional zones should be monitored. The responsible reporting authority is the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration. Supplementary operational reporting from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense could provide information within 24 hours on participating air and naval forces. An expansion beyond the coastal zones would raise the current limited assessment within the 72-hour horizon.
Glossary
A2/AD
Anti-Access/Area Denial; measures intended to prevent adversary access and restrict freedom of operation.
AAR
Air-to-Air Refuelling.
Air Tasking
The allocation, prioritisation and coordination of military air missions within the air-operations process.
Appropriations
The statutory provision of Budget Authority to finance previously authorised programmes.
BDA
Battle Damage Assessment; assessment of an attack’s effects on the target and the adversary’s capabilities.
Budget Authority
Legal authority allowing a US federal agency to incur financial obligations against the federal budget.
C2
Command and Control; the command and decision-making structure of a military operation.
Cloture
A US Senate procedure for ending debate and moving to a final vote.
Counterforce
The targeting of an adversary’s military forces and capabilities.
CZIB
Conflict Zone Information Bulletin; EASA aviation-safety information concerning conflict areas.
Deconfliction
Spatial, temporal or operational coordination intended to prevent mutual interference.
FIR
Flight Information Region; designated airspace in which flight-information and alerting services are provided.
Force Availability
Forces that are operationally ready and actually available for assignment and employment.
Force Protection
Measures intended to protect own and allied forces against hostile action.
Fratricide
The unintended engagement of own or allied forces.
IAMD
Integrated Air and Missile Defense.
JMIC
Joint Maritime Information Center; a multinational centre for consolidating and assessing maritime-security information.
KRITIS
Critical infrastructure essential to the functioning of the state, the population and the armed forces.
NDAA
National Defense Authorization Act; the annual US defence-policy authorisation act.
NOTAM
Notice to Air Missions; time-critical aeronautical information affecting flight operations.
SLOC
Sea Lines of Communication; strategically relevant maritime transport and supply routes.
UAS
Uncrewed Aircraft System.
UKMTO
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations; the British reporting authority for maritime-security incidents.
Register of Persons
Donald Trump
President of the United States. Announced retaliatory attacks against Iranian infrastructure in response to further attacks on commercial shipping.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President of Ukraine. Directed the leadership reorganisation and established the priority development tasks for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Mykhailo Drapatyi
Major General and new Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Received the task of developing operational command.
Ihor Skybiuk
Major General and designated Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff. The appointment decree was being prepared during the reporting period.
Dimitar Stoyanov
Bulgarian Minister of Defence. Presented the proposal for the deployment of US KC-135 aircraft and defined its intended mandate.
Chris Penk
New Zealand Minister of Defence. Signed the Statement of Intent on Defence Cooperation with Papua New Guinea.
Elias Kapavore
Minister of Defence of Papua New Guinea. Signed the bilateral Statement of Intent for 2026–2029.
References
United States Central Command
CENTCOM Completes Latest Strikes Against Iran
Published: 23 July 2026 CEST; operation completed: 230430B JUL 26
centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4553225/centcom-completes-latest-strikes-against-iran/
Reuters
US military completes 12th straight night of strikes on Iran
Date: 23 July 2026
reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-military-completes-12th-straight-night-strikes-iran-2026-07-23/
Reuters
Trump says US will attack Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship targeted in Hormuz
Date: 22 July 2026
reuters.com/world/trump-us-will-attack-iranian-bridge-power-plant-every-ship-targeted-hormuz-2026-07-22/
Associated Press
Houthis say they attacked 2 Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea as US carries out 12th night of strikes
Date: 23 July 2026
apnews.com/article/60d46bf8c83c43a8f2268b7b87627c55
Jordan News Agency – Petra
Air Defenses Intercept Iranian Missiles Targeting Kingdom
Date: 22 July 2026
petra.gov.jo/en/news/air-defenses-intercept-iranian-missiles-targeting-kingdom
Jordan News Agency – Petra
Jordan Air Defense Systems Intercept, Neutralize Four Iranian Drones
Date: 22 July 2026
petra.gov.jo/en/news/jordan-air-defense-systems-intercept-neutralize-four-iranian-drones
European Union Aviation Safety Agency
CZIB-2026-08: Airspace of Jordan
Date: 22 July 2026
easa.europa.eu/en/domains/air-operations/czibs/czib-2026-08
European Union Aviation Safety Agency
CZIB-2026-07R1: Airspace of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman
Date: 22 July 2026
easa.europa.eu/en/domains/air-operations/czibs/czib-2026-07r1
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations
UKMTO WARNING 095-26
Date: 22 July 2026; retrieved: 23 July 2026
ukmto.org/ukmto-products/warnings
Saudi Press Agency
TGA’s Official Source: All Crew Members Aboard the Vessel ENCELIA Safe, and Necessary Measures Taken to Secure It
Date: 23 July 2026; retrieved: 23 July 2026
spa.gov.sa/en
Reuters
Houthis say they attacked two Saudi tankers; Saudi Arabia says one ablaze in Red Sea
Date: 22 July 2026
reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-targeted-two-saudi-oil-tankers-2026-07-22/
Ministry of Defence of Ukraine
President of Ukraine Outlines Personnel Changes and Development Priorities for the Defence Forces
Date: 22 July 2026
mod.gov.ua/en/news/president-of-ukraine-outlines-personnel-changes-and-development-priorities-for-the-defence-forces
Reuters
Ukraine Will Step Up Counteroffensive Actions, New Top Commander Says
Date: 22 July 2026
reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-will-step-up-counteroffensive-actions-new-top-commander-says-2026-07-22/
Associated Press
Ukraine Overhauls Its Military Top Brass for the Fight Against Russia
Date: 22 July 2026
apnews.com/article/3001163461bb5ed7f790720f13eb3e36
National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria
Draft Decision on the Presence of US Armed Forces Personnel and Aviation Equipment at Bezmer
Date: 20 July 2026
parliament.bg/bg/ns_acts/ID/167210
National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria
Plenary Programme and Parliamentary Proceedings
Date: 22 July 2026
parliament.bg/bg/plenaryprogram/ID/1444
Bulgarian News Agency
Parliament Authorizes Deployment of Up to Eight US KC-135 Aircraft and 250 Military Personnel at Bezmer Air Base
Date: 22 July 2026
bta.bg/en/news/world/1171624-parliament-authorizes-deployment-of-up-to-8-us-kc-135-aircraft-250-military-per
Reuters
Bulgaria Approves Stationing of US Tanker Aircraft Despite Iran Warning
Date: 22 July 2026
reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/bulgaria-plays-down-iran-warning-over-us-tanker-aircraft-2026-07-22/
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives
Roll Call 278: H.R. 8800, National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027
Date: 22 July 2026
clerk.house.gov/Votes/2026278
United States Congress
H.R. 8800 — National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027
Retrieved: 23 July 2026
congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8800
Reuters
US House Passes $1 Trillion Defense Bill Despite Iran, Israel Concerns
Date: 22 July 2026
reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-house-passes-1-trillion-defense-bill-despite-iran-israel-concerns-2026-07-22/
Naval Postgraduate School
NPS Launches First NVIDIA DGX GB300 AI Supercomputer in US Military
Date: 22 July 2026
nps.edu/-/nps-launches-first-nvidia-dgx-gb300-ai-supercomputer-in-u.s.-military-to-advance-leadership-through-education-and-research
Reuters
China Begins Two Days of Live-Fire Drills in Taiwan Strait
Date: 23 July 2026
reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-announces-live-fire-drills-taiwan-strait-2026-07-23/
Government of New Zealand
NZ and PNG Strengthen Defence Ties
Date: 22 July 2026
beehive.govt.nz/release/nz-and-png-strengthen-defence-ties
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Ebola Disease Outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda
Updated: 22 July 2026
ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda