EMET NEWS PRESS

Situation Assessment I

The war has been running since 28 February 2026. On that day, according to the research service of the British House of Commons, Israel and the United States began a series of strikes against Iran with the declared aims of inducing regime change and degrading the nuclear and ballistic missile programmes; Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes. Tehran responded with counter-strikes against Israel, against US bases in the region and against military and civilian targets in Arab states, and by closing the Strait of Hormuz. On 8 April Pakistan brokered a conditional two-week ceasefire; talks in Islamabad on 11 April produced no agreement. On 17 June, according to CNN, Washington released the text of a fourteen-point MoU with Tehran containing provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The House of Commons Library records that Iran has attacked every Arab Gulf state with missiles and drones, the United Arab Emirates most frequently, followed by Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

The Iranian army statement of 24 July, as carried by France 24, names US equipment warehouses at Camp Udairi and the location of American military personnel at Camp Doha and Camp Arifjan. The Revolutionary Guards separately claimed strikes on Ali al-Salem in Kuwait, on equipment silos at Camp Udairi and on a Fifth Fleet watchtower in Bahrain, as well as an attack on an Amazon data centre in Bahrain. Neither the company nor Bahraini authorities have commented on that claim, which leaves it at the level of an actor assertion. IranWire reported that air-raid sirens sounded in Bahrain a few hours after CENTCOM's summary of the thirteenth consecutive night of American strikes against targets inside Iran.

The target list names Camp Doha. Stars and Stripes reported in April 2005 on the impending closure of the facility and the transfer of operations to other Kuwaiti sites; the Associated Press reported in December 2005 that the greater part of it had been returned to Kuwait. IranWire rendered the army statement as describing Camp al-Doha as a logistics and munitions depot for US forces. No confirmation of that functional attribution has come from CENTCOM or the Kuwaiti defence ministry, although both routinely comment on attacks on Kuwaiti soil. Two readings remain open: a target file carrying legacy entries, or a place name referring to a different facility in the Doha area. Against the first stands the fact that the same body of statements, according to IranWire, distinguishes between the Udairi range and Camp Buehring, which points to maintained mapping. The finding does not support a conclusion about the quality of the Iranian target file.

Situation Assessment II

On the American side, seizure of Kharg has been on the table since early June. Military Times reported on 11 June a Truth Social announcement by President Donald Trump that the United States would at some unspecified point take Kharg and further oil infrastructure sites and assume full control of Iran's oil and gas markets; the White House told the same publication that all military options remained open, including occupation by a significant ground force. Trump qualified this the same day, saying he did not want boots on the ground but could take the whole place with a small group of soldiers if he chose. Speaking to CNBC, he expressed doubt that the United States had the stomach for a seizure of Kharg. The Washington Examiner carried his statement in early July on the margins of the NATO summit that American forces had struck Kharg the previous night and knocked out a piece, with instructions to spare the pipelines and hit everything else.

Kharg handles roughly ninety per cent of Iranian crude oil exports according to Military Times. Fox News puts the distance to the Iranian Gulf coast at sixteen miles and the island's area at eight square miles. American forces struck the island in March 2026; CENTCOM, as reported by NBC News, named naval mine and missile storage facilities among the targets destroyed, spoke of ninety military targets and of deliberately preserving the oil infrastructure.

The target spectrum of the air campaign has shifted since then. NBC News carried a CENTCOM statement for the seventh consecutive night, according to which fighter aircraft, drones and warships engaged surveillance sites, military logistics infrastructure, underground weapons storage and maritime capabilities, with a discernible focus on severing the port of Bandar Abbas from the road links toward Tehran. Iran International reported on 18 July on the effect at ground level: according to the Hormozgan provincial administration, six bridges were struck in Khamir county alone and the Bandar Abbas–Lar highway was cut, along with the Shahid Mirzaei road tunnel in both directions, the Roudkhaneh Shour bridge on the Bandar Abbas–Sirjan route and two further bridges on the road from the Minab junction toward Rudan. Iranian media, as reported by the same publication, described missile strikes on power and desalination facilities in Jask, cutting water to some ten thousand people in twenty villages, and a third strike within one week on the maritime control tower at Chabahar. Mohammed Ali Ghanamizadeh Fallahi, a Middle East researcher based in Tehran, argued to The Media Line that these strikes were preparing a ground attack. The US Department of Defense has published nothing on such planning.

Capability Test: The Iranian Ground Option

Iran does not border Kuwait. A ground attack requires either transit across Iraqi territory or an amphibious landing in the northern Gulf. John Keith King, founder of the consultancy Q Advisory, pointed to that geography in remarks to The Media Line, to the exposure of a landing under hostile air superiority, and to the fact that Bahrain is an island hosting the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet. Kobi Michael of the Institute for National Security Studies assessed a mobilisation of Iraqi militias as logistically demanding and observable by intelligence means over extended periods.

The benchmark for a ground operation against Kuwait lies in the region itself. The Washington Examiner described the Iraqi invasion of 2 August 1990 as an assault by roughly one hundred thousand troops that crossed the shared land border shortly after midnight, with mechanised and armoured Republican Guard divisions making the breach and special forces conducting airborne and amphibious assaults into Kuwait City. The same account records that satellite imagery and human reporting had shown the Iraqi build-up along the border before the attack. Iran possesses none of the three preconditions of that pattern, and the observability that already existed in 1990 has increased since.

The means employed since February engage fixed targets at distance. For 24 July the Iranian army named, as carried by Euronews, Arash one-way attack drones against fuel tanks, equipment warehouses, silos and accommodation at Sheikh Isa. Kuwait experienced the same mechanism on 3 June: Brigadier General Saud Abdulaziz al-Otaibi, spokesman for the Kuwaiti defence ministry, told Euronews that a number of hostile drones had struck and heavily damaged the passenger building of Kuwait International Airport. The Kuwaiti foreign ministry, according to CBS News, reported one person killed, further injuries and damage to vital facilities including diplomatic missions, and reserved the right to respond in a manner consistent with international law. Within this capability envelope, King named sabotage, infiltration and a limited raid to seize personnel as the plausible variants. Their effect would arise from the American obligation to respond within hours.

CBS News reported on 24 July on a depletion of American interceptor stocks over the course of the war. The US Department of Defense has published neither inventory figures nor replacement rates.

Kharg: Seizure and the Holding Problem

Robert Harward, a former member of the National Security Council and a member of the Iran Policy Project at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, described the military core of the option to Fox News. In his assessment, Iranian planners have invested for years in asymmetric means to make an amphibious landing costly rather than meeting the US Navy ship for ship. Once American forces stood on Kharg, he said, the principal danger would shift from naval combat to missiles and drones launched from the nearby mainland. He assigned Iranian air power no substantial role in that scenario. Experts in the same account regard taking the island as the easier part of the task. The island therefore stands under discussion as a fixed position inside a mature A2/AD complex whose effect unfolds only after seizure.

The Kurdish Component

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described, in a multi-part interview with the Iranian journalist Javad Moghouei, American plans to break Iran apart by way of Kurdish territory. He said he had telephoned the authorities of the Kurdistan Region and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Baghdad; both assured him they would never permit this, and Turkey played a significant role. The Jerusalem Post carried that passage. The Irish Times records that Araghchi gave the interview before the resumption of all-out hostilities. His account therefore relates to a closed phase and carries no statement about the state of the Kurdish question in July.

A threat treating the same flank as open nevertheless runs from the same government apparatus: The Media Line carries from Tehran the announcement of an invasion of Kuwait in the event of a Kurdish-backed American ground operation. The interval between recording and threat limits how far the two statements contradict one another. It shows that Tehran's handling of the Kurdish question shifts within a few weeks between reassurance and threat assertion. Militarily, Iran treats Kurdish territory as a target area: France 24 documented explosions on 24 July near a facility used by American forces in Erbil.

King assessed a Kurdish ground component to The Media Line as more plausible than a conventional American invasion, while holding it dependent on extensive American support, and warned against converting a conflict over nuclear, missile and maritime conduct into an ethnic-territorial war with repercussions for Ankara and Baghdad. Ghanamizadeh Fallahi disputed the assumption of Kurdish willingness to cooperate inside Iran.

Second Chokepoint: Bab al-Mandab

The Houthis declared a naval embargo against Saudi shipping in the week to 20 July and claimed attacks on 22 July with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones against two Saudi oil tankers. The British UKMTO confirmed an attack on at least one vessel. According to CNBC, the Joint Maritime Information Center led by the American naval component warned of missiles and drones deployed near the strait. President Trump told the same publication on 23 July that the United States would hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks. Kobi Michael disputed the classification of the Houthis as an Iranian proxy under orders and pointed to the movement's own interests.

The Saudi alternative route is coming under pressure while Hormuz remains constrained. The War Zone carried figures from the data provider Kpler for 21 July: nine transits through the Strait of Hormuz, a decline of thirty-one per cent against the previous day, along with a thirty-four per cent drop in traffic at Bab al-Mandab following the embargo declaration. USNI News documented traffic below ten per cent of pre-war levels in early May and carried the assessment of Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List, that normalisation of tanker and oil markets would take until September at the earliest even if the strait opened immediately.

Israeli Precautions

On 23 July several Israeli municipalities opened their public shelters, among them Ramat Gan, Eilat and Karmiel. Mayor Carmel Shama-Hacohen justified the step in Ramat Gan on the basis of a municipal assessment and stated that no separate warning from Home Front Command had been issued; the Israeli military confirmed the same day that national guidance remained unchanged. Defence Minister Israel Katz said after a situation briefing that Israel was prepared for every eventuality. King observed that municipal shelter openings by themselves establish no evidence of intelligence warning, and that their indicator value would rise only with a change in national guidance, altered reserve and air-defence postures, or intensified American-Israeli coordination. Michael saw an increased likelihood of Israeli involvement alongside divergent objectives; Hormuz ranks among American priorities while Jerusalem pursues other emphases.

Intelligence Assessment

The ground-war threat against Kuwait and Bahrain originates in the parliamentary sphere in Tehran. Neither the army nor the Revolutionary Guards have taken it up in their operational statements, although both bodies have published target reports daily since February. Its function lies in deterrence against the American ground option around Kharg and against activation of a Kurdish component, by placing before the Gulf states the cost of an American land operation on their territory.

Tehran's statements on the Kurdish question oscillate within a few weeks between the depiction of a diplomatically secured flank and the assertion of an immediate threat from the same direction. The interval between the two remarks explains part of that oscillation. For assessing the risk of ground war, what remains is the observation that the sharpest formulation comes from parliament rather than from the foreign ministry or the military leadership.

Washington requires a visible result at Hormuz to break off the campaign. Tehran holds closure capability as an asymmetric instrument of pressure against a superior opponent and has employed it repeatedly since 28 February. The Gulf states bear the cost of both calculations. A former Bahraini diplomat cited by The Media Line, whose identity the agency withholds at his request, expects a reordering of Gulf security architecture including Iran should the American effort fail; that assessment rests on a single source.

A seizure of Kharg or a commando raid against an American facility in Kuwait would compel a response within hours, with targets in several states. Uncertainty remains over the actual effect of the Iranian strikes of 24 July, since CENTCOM has produced no damage assessment, over the state of American contacts with Kurdish forces, and over Baghdad's position on a militia transit.

Five developments are verifiable and would alter this assessment. Movements of Iranian mechanised formations or amphibious assets into the Khorramshahr–Abadan area would strike at the core assumption and would be visible on commercial satellite imagery. The transit question turns on assembly areas for Iraqi militias south of Basra and on Baghdad's reaction to them. A build-up of American amphibious tonnage in the Gulf together with the movement of mine countermeasures and salvage assets toward Kharg would form the run-up to an island operation. Only a change in national Home Front Command guidance would give the municipal shelter openings in Israel national force. Should the Houthis resume their attacks at Bab al-Mandab after the pause observed since 22 July, the second chokepoint closes durably and Riyadh loses its alternative route.

Glossary

A2/AD
Anti-Access/Area Denial. A complex of anti-ship missiles, sea mines, drones and coastal radar intended to deny or raise the cost of a superior opponent's access to a maritime area.

Arash
Iranian one-way attack drone, named by the Iranian army as employed against targets in Bahrain and Jordan on 24 July 2026.

Bab al-Mandab
Strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Chokepoint
A maritime narrows whose closure or disruption produces disproportionate effects on global trade and energy flows.

MoU
Memorandum of Understanding. The fourteen-point agreement with Tehran whose text Washington released on 17 June 2026, containing provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

One-way attack drone
An unmanned aircraft destroyed together with its warhead at the target, with no provision for recovery.

UKMTO
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations. British reporting authority for merchant shipping incidents in the Middle East and Indian Ocean region.

Index of Persons

Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani
Member of the National Security Committee of the Iranian parliament.

Abbas Araghchi
Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Saud Abdulaziz al-Otaibi
Brigadier General, spokesman for the Kuwaiti Ministry of Defence.

Mohammed Shia al-Sudani
Prime Minister of the Republic of Iraq.

Robert Harward
Former member of the US National Security Council, member of the Iran Policy Project at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.

Israel Katz
Minister of Defence of the State of Israel.

John Keith King
Founder of the consultancy Q Advisory.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List, London.

Kobi Michael
Analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies.

Javad Moghouei
Iranian journalist, interviewer of Abbas Araghchi.

Mohammed Ali Ghanamizadeh Fallahi
Middle East researcher based in Tehran.

Carmel Shama-Hacohen
Mayor of Ramat Gan.

Donald Trump
President of the United States of America.

References

Stars and Stripes
Army preparing to close Camp Doha, shift operations to other Kuwait bases
Date: April 2005
stripes.com/news/2005-04-11/army-preparing-to-close-camp-doha-shift-operations-to-other-kuwait-bases-1917552.html

The Seattle Times
U.S. returns Kuwait base used for Iraq war buildup
Date: December 2005
seattletimes.com/nation-world/us-returns-kuwait-base-used-for-iraq-war-buildup/

The Washington Examiner
The Guns of August 1990
Date: August 2015
washingtonexaminer.com/magazine/317483/the-guns-of-august-1990/

NBC News
U.S. bombing of Kharg Island, Iran's critical oil hub, sparks new threats to target Gulf oil infrastructure
Date: March 2026
nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-threatens-strike-oil-facilities-us-hits-military-targets-kharg-is-rcna263453

House of Commons Library
US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks in 2026
Date: 24 April 2026
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10637/

USNI News
Strait of Hormuz Commercial Transits at Lowest Level Since Operation Epic Fury Start, Shipping Data Shows
Date: May 2026
news.usni.org/2026/05/01/strait-of-hormuz-commercial-transits-at-lowest-level-since-operation-epic-fury-start-shipping-data-shows

Euronews
Iranian drone attack hits Kuwait airport as US and Iran trade strikes
Date: 3 June 2026
euronews.com/2026/06/03/iranian-drone-attack-causes-heavy-damage-to-kuwait-airport-as-us-and-iran-trade-strikes

CBS News
Israel, Lebanon agree to renew ceasefire as Iran launches deadly attack on Kuwait airport
Date: June 2026
cbsnews.com/live-updates/trump-iran-war-attacks-kuwait-airport-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire/

Military Times
Trump vows to seize Iran's Kharg Island
Date: 11 June 2026
militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/06/11/trump-vows-to-seize-irans-kharg-island/

CNBC
Trump threatens to seize Kharg Island and other Iran oil infrastructure
Date: 11 June 2026
cnbc.com/2026/06/11/trump-says-us-will-seize-kharg-island-and-other-oil-infrastructure-points.html

CNN
US releases official agreement with Iran. Read the 14-point text
Date: 17 June 2026
cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl

The Washington Examiner
Trump says US attacked Kharg Island and could take it over
Date: July 2026
washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/4640249/trump-threat-take-over-kharg-island-iran/

Iran International
US invasion of Iran could trigger Iranian ground attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain
Date: 17 July 2026
iranintl.com/en/202607171445

Iran International
US strikes cut roads and bridges in southern Iran as ground assault talk grows
Date: 18 July 2026
iranintl.com/en/202607185204

NBC News
U.S. strikes bridges around key port in Iran, expanding campaign in battle over Hormuz
Date: July 2026
nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-strikes-bridges-iran-port-hormuz-bandar-abbas-syria-rcna587959

Fox News
Trump leaves door open to seizing Kharg island as experts map out the risks
Date: July 2026
foxnews.com/world/trump-wont-rule-out-kharg-island-takeover-what-us-assault-could-look-like

The Jerusalem Post
'Everything was in ruins': Iran's FM Araghchi describes surviving Israel's opening strikes
Date: July 2026
jpost.com/middle-east/article-903349

The Irish Times
'Everything was wrecked': Iran's foreign minister describes attack that killed Khamenei
Date: 22 July 2026
irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/07/22/everything-was-wrecked-irans-foreign-minister-describes-attack-that-killed-khamenei/

CNBC
Houthis deploy missiles and drones to attack ships in southern Red Sea, naval group says
Date: 22 July 2026
cnbc.com/2026/07/22/houthis-red-sea-bab-el-mandeb-saudi-oil-iran.html

The War Zone
Houthis Now Attacking Saudi Oil Tankers In Red Sea, Major Energy Supply Implications
Date: 23 July 2026
twz.com/news-features/houthis-now-attacking-saudi-oil-tankers-in-red-sea-major-energy-supply-implications

CNBC
Trump says U.S. will hold Iran responsible for Houthi attacks after oil tankers targeted in Red Sea
Date: 23 July 2026
cnbc.com/2026/07/23/iran-war-us-trump-houthis-red-sea-oil.html

The Jerusalem Post
Israeli cities open bomb shelters from Eilat to Karmiel, prepare for possible escalation with Iran
Date: 23 July 2026
jpost.com/israel-news/article-903421

The Media Line
Iran Warns It Will Invade Kuwait if US Launches Kurdish-Backed Ground Offensive
Date: 23 July 2026
themedialine.org/headlines/iran-warns-it-will-invade-kuwait-if-us-launches-kurdish-backed-ground-offensive/

IranWire
Iran Claims New Attacks on US Bases in Jordan and Kuwait
Date: July 2026
iranwire.com/en/news/155353-iran-claims-new-attacks-on-us-bases-in-jordan-and-kuwait/

France 24
US pummels Iran as Tehran targets regional bases stationing US forces
Date: 24 July 2026
france24.com/en/middle-east/20260724-us-pummels-iranian-sites-tehran-targets-regional-bases-stationing-us-forces

Euronews
Iran claims attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait
Date: 24 July 2026
euronews.com/2026/07/24/iran-military-says-it-targeted-us-bases-in-bahrain-jordan-and-kuwait

IranWire
Iran Claims Drone Attacks on U.S. Bases in Bahrain and Jordan
Date: 24 July 2026
iranwire.com/en/news/155409-iran-claims-drone-attacks-on-us-bases-in-bahrain-and-jordan/

CBS News
Iran targets American bases in Jordan and Iraq as raging war depletes U.S. interceptor stockpiles
Date: 24 July 2026
cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-strait-hormuz-middle-east/

The Media Line
John Keith King Cautions Against Ground Front: Eyes on Kurds, Kharg Island and Kuwait
Date: 24 July 2026
themedialine.org/top-stories/john-keith-king-cautions-against-ground-front-eyes-on-kurds-kharg-island-and-kuwait/

The Jerusalem Post
Could Iran invade Kuwait? New threats raise fears of wider Middle East war
Date: 24 July 2026
jpost.com/middle-east/article-903561